January 06, 2021
In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update: January 05, 2021. Read more.
A recent study published in JAMA and reported by CIDRAP finds that 14.3% of the US population had antibodies against COVID-19 by November 2020; implying that more people than reported have been infected. This tracks with the discussion that there may be a lot of COVID-19 underreporting. Additionally, there is evidence that about 35% of COVID-19 related deaths have not been reported.
In its weekly situational report, the WHO has found that the UK COVID-19 Variant (also known as the B.1.1.7 variant) has been found in 40 other WHO-involved countries. The South African COVID-19 Variant (501Y.V2) has been detected in six other countries.
More European countries are announcing tighter restrictions and lockdowns.
There is increasing evidence that patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms (post-hospitalization, etc.) have also developed symptoms like those associated with brain injury and other neurological disorders. NPR has summarized the studies.
Recommendations for Industry
TAG’S COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update: January 6, 2021
This week’s matrices are showing upward trends in nearly every region of the US, which we would expect is attributable to a variety of factors – many stemming from the holidays at the end of December. The increase in testing is likely a “catch-up” from the reduced testing over the Christmas weekend – similar to what we saw over Thanksgiving weekend. We would also expect the increase in cases may be a reflection of the pre and post-Christmas travel – and would expect this will continue on this trajectory reflecting Christmas and New Year’s travel and gatherings. While we likely will begin to see a rise in case rates from the COVID-19 variant’s arrival in the U.S., there’s no conclusive evidence that the variant is causing the current surge in cases in the US.
What all this says is a continued repetition of the recommendations we’ve made for months – ensure workers are continuing to mask, maintain distance and personal hygiene, and continue enhanced sanitation. And encourage their continuation when not at work as well.
As shown in the matrices:
Forty-one (41) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from 27 last week (Table 1, Figure, 1, Figure 2). States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.
The Government Stringency Index remains at 49. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has increased to 14%, up from last week’s 12%, indicating that mobility has decreased throughout the U.S.
Twelve (12) states’ (Idaho, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. Seven (7) states’ (Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Illinois) businesses are mostly closed.
Thirty-two (32) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 2). This is down from 26 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 16 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is down from 19 states last week. The only states with a TPR<10% and a case rate < 25/100K are: Hawaii, and Vermont.
Table 1. Case Rate per 100,000 persons
In Case You Missed It...
On Monday, Recommendations for Industry, we discuss the new COVID-19 variants and what their spread means to the U.S. Read more.
The FDA has published a new toolkit to communicate hand sanitizer safety & use during COVID-19 in both English and Spanish. The FDA also has a new COVID-19 Communication Toolkits webpage that provides links to all FDA toolkits on COVID-19 topics to help everyone communicate accurate and timely information to patients, the public, and health care professionals.
To answer your questions about the vaccine, TAG has developed a new COVID-19 Vaccine FAQ webpage. We will continue to update the FAQs both in our COVID newsletter and on that webpage
Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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